“Following the start of attacks on Iran on 28 February, transits through the Strait of Hormuz have effectively stopped, severing Persian Gulf ports from global container services. As a result, around 130 container ships, totalling about 1.5% of the global fleet’s capacity, are stranded in the gulf. The war has added uncertainty to an outlook that was already obscured by ever changing US tariffs,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.

Due to the lack of transits through the Strait of Hormuz, around 3% of global container volumes can no longer move, directly impacting approximately 5% of global ship demand. As many ships calling at Persian Gulf ports also service ports in e.g. Pakistan and India, it is estimated that nearly 10% of the global fleet has been impacted by the war.

The war adds to the uncertainty already created by US trade policy. The Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that most of the import tariffs charged in 2025 and early 2026 were unlawful and fees collected must therefore be refunded. In response, President Trump introduced an across-the-board 15% tariff which is due to expire after 150 days unless extended by Congress.

As no one can predict when transits through the Strait of Hormuz will resume, we use two forecast scenarios. One assumes that the strait remains effectively closed indefinitely (SoH Closed) while the other…