World trade is set to slow in 2026 following stronger than expected growth in 2025 on the back of surging trade in AI-enabling products. WTO economists warn that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could further reduce trade growth if energy prices remain elevated, noting that it would also put pressure on food supplies and services trade due to travel and transport disruptions. Prospects could still improve if the conflict ends quickly and the boom in AI spending continues.

The latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” released on 19 March provides a baseline growth scenario excluding energy price shocks, forecasting that global merchandise trade growth would slow to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025 as trade is expected to normalize following a surge in AI-related products and the frontloading of imports to avoid new tariffs. World merchandise trade volume is then projected to grow by 2.6% in 2027. Commercial services trade growth will ease to 4.8% in 2026 after this year’s 5.3% rise, then accelerate again to 5.1% in 2027. Together, goods and services trade will grow 2.7% in 2026 compared with 4.7% in 2025. Global GDP growth is projected to moderate slightly from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.8% in both 2026 and 2027.

However, a scenario where both crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remain elevated throughout 2026 would shave 0.3 percentage points off the GDP…