The existing situation in the tanker markets could be leading towards a long-term disruption with unknown variables. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Xclusiv said that “the past week has confirmed that the disruption in the Arabian Gulf is no longer just a supply shock but a market distortion that is beginning to erode demand itself. What initially supported freight through panic, dislocation and risk premiums is now evolving into something more complex: a shrinking cargo base, trapped tonnage and an increasingly fragmented tanker market”.

Source: Xclusiv

According to Xclusiv, “on the crude side, the numbers are becoming difficult to ignore. With weekly volumes out of the Middle East Gulf down by as much as 65% and an estimated 100 tankers (>20.000 DWT) unable to exit the region (based on Signal Ocean Data), the market is effectively dealing with a logistical bottleneck rather than a pure shortage. The immediate reaction earlier this month — with extreme fixtures reported at record levels — reflected fear and scarcity. However, as days pass without a reopening of Hormuz, the reality is shifting toward lost earnings days, idle capacity and growing uncertainty around forward employment. This explains why forward expectations are already being revised down despite headline volatility. At the same time, policy responses are becoming increasingly unconventional….