With the war in the Middle East entering its fourth week, questions regarding oil production capacity are beginning to arise. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Gibson said that “the past few days have seen the conflict extend beyond chokepoint disruption into direct strikes on production and refining infrastructure across the Gulf. Following Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field on Wednesday, Iran retaliated with drone and missile strikes on energy facilities in Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial complex was targeted, and Abu Dhabi’s Habshan gas facility and Bab oil field were shut down. Drone strikes caused fires at Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi (346 kbd) and Mina Abdullah (454 kbd) refineries, with the former being struck repeatedly, forcing a shutdown of the refinery. The SAMREF refinery in Yanbu and Haifa refinery in Israel were also struck, with damage still being assessed. After a brief pause over the weekend, attacks on vessels continued this week, as a ship was struck off Ras Laffan, and another off Khor Fakkan. Since 28 February, the UKMTO has reported a total of 19 attacks on commercial vessels”.

According to Gibson, “the Yanbu developments merit particular attention. Saudi Aramco briefly halted crude loadings at the port on Thursday following the SAMREF strike and the interception of a ballistic missile in the vicinity,…