Seaborne steel flows reached 21.1mt in February 2026, up less than 1% from the same period last year. The global flatline came despite a 6% rise in steel flows from China, as this was mitigated by an aggregated fall of 4% elsewhere.

The relationship between Chinese steel exports and domestic steel production continued in the typical trend in 2026 so far. Weaker domestic production, a result of weak domestic demand, drives producers to find export markets. For the first two months of 2026, Chinese crude steel production fell by 4%, as exports rose by 9% in January and 6% in February.

The largest receiver of these increased flows has been nations in South East Asia, most notably Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia, which have combined to account for just shy of 20% of all Chinese steel exports in 2026 so far. These regions have absorbed the surge in shipments due to their expanding construction and infrastructure sectors, as well as their strategic positions as regional trading hubs. This shift underscores a growing reorientation of Chinese steel exports away from traditional Western markets toward the dynamic economies of the Asia-Pacific region.

The disruption in the Arabian Gulf has yet to materially impact global steel flows, although early signs of regional dislocation are emerging. Historically, the region accounts…