We retain a range of 285–310 million tonnes (Mt) for China’s 2026 seaborne thermal coal imports, with 295 Mt as our conditional central case. Extending October’s arrival pace gives 288.96 Mt. Winter restocking could close the 6.04 Mt gap. As at 2 November, the procurement evidence had yet to establish that extra volume.

By 30 October, China-bound Panamax thermal coal volumes were almost flat year on year, but a longer average haul had lifted estimated tonne-miles by 1.52%. At 295 Mt, the choice of loading area and vessel size could still raise or reduce the Panamax workload this winter.

Signal Ocean voyage estimates, including lignite and all anthracite. Full-month observations end in September. October extends the observed pace to month-end. November’s median share of November–December arrivals in 2021–25 splits the two months. The grey line in…